Perspectives on Indian Energy based on Rumi (PIER), is an Indian energy systems model for India built on the Rumi modelling platform that estimates demand and cost-optimal supply options to meet the demand. Version 2.0 of PIER currently features energy demand estimation for five different sectors: residential, transport, industry, agriculture and "others" up to 2040-41, out of which demand for three sectors (residential, transport and industry) is modelled bottom-up. The rest are modelled top-down based on GDP elasticity or past trends.
Demand is estimated for each energy carrier and for each sector at as fine a granularity as possible. Thus, residential demand is estimated for carriers such as electricity, biomass (solid fuels), LPG separately for urban and rural households in 25 states in India, with electricity demand being estimated for each hour of a representative day for each month of each year of the period modelled. Transport energy demand is estimated for each transport fuel (such as Motor Spirit and High Speed Diesel) and for each state (road only), with electricity demand for transport also being estimated at the same temporal granularity as the residential sector. An additional feature in this version is blending of ethanol with Motor Spirit.
Industrial energy demand is estimated in a detailed way for steel, cement and aluminium industries, which are the top energy consuming industries. Demand for fuels (such as coking coal, thermal coal, natural gas, petcoke etc.) is estimated at the national level with electricity demand being estimated at the state level at the same temporal granularity as the residential sector. PIER 2.0 also estimates the demand for green hydrogen as feedstock or energy input in industry.
Various sector-specific and three cross-sectoral scenarios are modelled to reflect different possible future pathways, with the input assumptions and values changing across the scenarios.
Cross-sectoral scenarios in PIER 2.0
Reference: This is a combination of the sector-specific reference scenarios, and represents the best guess of what is likely to happen in the future based on past and likely future trends.
‘Vikasit Bharat’: This scenario represents the equivalent of a ‘sustainable development’ scenario. It reflects the aspirations of a ‘developed India’ by 2047 (FY48) announced by the Government of India. This scenario is also modelled to reflect a more equitable development, with greater focus on sustainability.
‘Vichalit Bharat’: This scenario is a counter-point to Vikasit Bharat, and represents a scenario in which development is a bit more haphazard. Economic growth is lower than Reference, it is less equitable, and it is also less environmentally sustainable due to lower investments in efficiency and new technologies.
The current release contains energy demand estimation for India from FY2023-24 to 2040-41. The full PIER 2.0 demand model can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14603083
The presentation describing the results and insights from the energy demand estimation exercise, and detailed presentations describing the methodology for modelling energy demand bottom-up in the three sectors can also be downloaded from this page.
This version of PIER demand model is consistent with Rumi 2.0.1.